Похмелье кредитного пира — экономика Китая пробуксовывает?
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Команда iStatist Экономика Китая столкнулась с угрозой замедления роста из-за процесса погашения долгов, спровоцированного длительным кредитным бумом. Долгое время вторая экономика мира опиралась на кредиты для финансирования всего — от мостов через каньоны до новых квартир.
Сейчас Китай столкнулся с длительным периодом так называемого делевереджинга — болезненного процесса, когда заемщики направляют свой доход на погашение долгов, а не на расходы и инвестиции.
Общий кредит для нефинансового сектора составил $49,9 триллионов в прошлом сентябре, что в три раза превышает уровень 10 лет назад, по данным Банка международных расчетов, консорциума мировых центральных банков. Эта цифра начала снижаться в долларах с $51,4 триллионов в конце 2021 года, хотя в местной валюте долг продолжал расти.
Проблема касается не центрального правительства, долги которого относительно низки в процентном соотношении к ВВП, а домохозяйств, частного сектора и местных властей. Общий долг в процентном соотношении к ВВП достиг 295% в Китае в прошлом сентябре, превысив 257% в США и среднее значение в 258% в еврозоне, по данным БИР.
Потребители накапливают наличные, многие отказываются от займов. Частные предприятия почти не инвестируют, несмотря на попытки Пекина поощрить предпринимателей к расходам. Местные власти сокращают расходы на все, от дорог до зарплат работников, чтобы контролировать свои долги.
Другие страны прошли через похожие процессы, которые почти всегда бывают болезненными. Исследование McKinsey показало, что из 45 эпизодов делевереджинга с времен Великой депрессии, 32 произошли после финансового кризиса.
Большинство экономистов не ожидают финансового кризиса в Китае, или даже суровой рецессии, потому что они полагают, что центральное правительство имеет финансовые возможности и желание предотвратить это.
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